Table 2 Associations between admission groups and bachelor completion and dropout rates unadjusted and adjusted for confounders

Primary outcome measures

Bachelor degree in three years*

< 0.001

< 0.001

 Selected (n = 416)

267

64,2%

ref

ref

ref

ref

ref

ref

ref

ref

ref

ref

 Rejected in step 2 (n = 57)

29

50,9%

−0,55

0.05

0,58

0,33

1,01

−0,7

0.02

0,5

0,28

0,90

 Rejected in step 1 (n = 169)

97

57,4%

−0,29

0.13

0,75

0,52

1,08

−0,25

0.22

0,78

0,53

1,16

 Withdrew from step 1 (n = 42)

18

42,9%

−0,87

< 0.01

0,42

0,22

0,80

−0,83

0.02

0,44

0,22

0,87

 Applied to lottery only (n = 366)

189

51,6%

−0,52

< 0.001

0,6

0,45

0,79

−0,53

< 0.001

0,59

0,43

0,80

 Total (n = 1050)

600

57,1%

Dropout in 6th year**

0.20

0.07

 Selected (n = 416)

31

7,5%

ref

ref

ref

ref

ref

ref

ref

ref

ref

ref

 Rejected in step 2 (n = 57)

2

3,5%

−0,8

0.29

2,21

0,52

9,51

−0,68

0.37

1,97

0,45

8,57

 Rejected in step 1 (n = 169)

14

8,3%

0,12

0.73

0,89

0,46

1,72

0,27

0.44

0,76

0,38

1,52

 Withdrew from step 1 (n = 42)

7

16,7%

0,91

0.05

0,4

0,17

0,98

1,14

0.02

0,32

0,13

0,81

 Applied to lottery only (n = 366)

34

9,3%

0,24

0.35

0,79

0,47

1,31

0,48

0.08

0,62

0,36

1,06

 Total (n = 1050)

88

8,4%

Secondary outcome measures

Year-1 completion in one year***

0.12

0.16

 Selected (n = 416)

168

40,4%

ref

ref

ref

ref

ref

ref

ref

ref

ref

ref

 Rejected in step 2 (n = 57)

26

45,6%

0,21

0.45

1,24

0,71

2,16

0,21

0.49

1,23

0,69

2,20

 Rejected in step 1 (n = 169)

63

37,3%

−0,13

0.49

0,88

0,61

1,27

−0,05

0.79

0,95

0,64

1,40

 Withdrew from step 1 (n = 42)

9

21,4%

−0,91

0.02

0,4

0,19

0,86

−0,85

0.04

0,43

0,19

0,94

 Applied to lottery only (n = 366)

153

41,8%

0,06

0.69

1,06

0,80

1,41

0,12

0.45

1,12

0,83

1,52

 Total (n = 1050)

419

39,9%

Bachelor degree in four years****

0.11

0.07

 Selected (n = 416)

339

81,5%

ref

ref

ref

ref

ref

ref

ref

ref

ref

ref

 Rejected in step 2 (n = 57)

45

78,9%

−0,16

0.65

0,85

0,43

1,69

−0,38

0.31

0,69

0,33

1,42

 Rejected in step 1 (n = 169)

136

80,5%

−0,07

0.78

0,94

0,59

1,47

−0,11

0.66

0,9

0,55

1,46

 Withdrew from step 1 (n = 42)

30

71,4%

−0,57

0.12

0,57

0,28

1,16

−0,68

0.08

0,51

0,24

1,09

 Applied to lottery only (n = 366)

272

74,3%

−0,42

0.02

0,66

0,47

0,92

−0,49

0.01

0,61

0,42

0,89

 Total (n = 1050)

822

78,3%